ProjectManagement Assignment 5 : What is the best tool use in expert judgment?
It was been discussed before that in order to organize a project, the project team is required to split or break the main project to several phases. These phases are composed of unique processes, and it is constructed with prerequisites. Some or most of these phases will encounter a technique called the Expert Judgment. To handle some risks, generate ideas and decision makings on the project, expert judgments are being conducted to guide the project team.
Expert judgment is mostly used in developing project charter, direct and manages project execution, perform integrated change control, define scope, estimate activity resources, estimating costs, identifying stakeholders, perform qualitative risk analysis, plan risk responses, conducting procurements and etc.
Defining what expert judgment is about: Expert judgment is a common technique used in estimation methods. Most judgments are based on expertise being acquired from specific areas and knowledge, which concludes that this method merely relies on factors such as gained experience from past projects. Which reminds me of something, having students consulting to a mentor for an approval or changes is also a practice of this expert judgment! LOL! Expert judgment is often used to assess the inputs needed to develop the project charter. Through this, gaining an edge using historical data is no more an issue. Inaccurate estimation definitely leads to failure, that’s why accurate data are important to set a mark for those estimations.
Through observations, I had managed to come up with a disadvantage regarding to the matter of having this expert judgment. Yes it is true that through this, the project team could have the advantage of securing the outcome of their project, hence giving them the assurance for a better quality. But using this technique or approach, the project team would spend a large time especially when taking the path of having the interviews and consults. Thus, the project team should be well prepared for consequence of using it or simply its drawbacks.
Any individual who has the knowledge and experience relating to the project could be considered as an expert. It could be a member of the team, an individual with same project in the past, and the project manager. But to avoid having biases, it is more appropriate to have an expert who’s outside the project, an individual or a group who’s not related to the project itself. Through this, the team could have an assurance of having the judgments straight, clear and real.
Expert judgment is a technique right? Where in this expert judgment is an approach to secure the quality of the ongoing project. Tools are being introduced to support this approach or rather the technique. Some tools that could be employed in this technique are the following:
Interviews – Interviews are common to us, this is a tool we had been using specially when we are in doubt or we do not have knowledge on something, it can go to a one-to-one or a many-to-one basis (which is compose of the expert and the apprentice or the project team). Interviews are conducted by asking a series of related questions to an expert or an individual whose knowledgeable that will increase your knowledge of the project or a particular project activity.
Brainstorming – Brainstorming is basically about sharing related ideas, knowledge and solution as an approach for a specific problem. This works by getting a group to focus on a problem and then coming up with as many ideas as possible to determine an absolute solution. The goal of brainstorming is to achieve a broad list of project risks and solutions to terminate further damages to the project.
Consulting – Another tool of expert judgment, in which the project team will come for an expert to have a consultation regarding to the risk and progress of their project. An effective approach, for it could give the project team the path that they must take and a consultant that will test and neglect some options.
Historical Data – Historical data uses the knowledge gained on a similar past project activity to obtain duration estimates for each activity associated with a current project. With the proven data, the team could compare and come up with a better approach or implementation for the project.
Using these tools and techniques, the project team could expand their knowledge about the projects’ risks control and on how to deal with the several options and additions for the developments and progress of their project.
Below are some techniques that still comprise the expert judgment (innovations made to cover the weaknesses of the said technique.):
Another technique that can be applied to handle risks and conclude ideas and solution is the analogous estimating. Analogous estimating is one form of expert judgment and it also known as Top-down Estimating. This approach or technique is mostly reliable when the previous activities are similar in fact and not just in appearance, and the project team members preparing the estimates have the needed expertise. This estimation technique will be applied to determine the duration when the detailed information about the project is not available, usually during the early stages of the project.
Another technique for judgment is the Delphi approach or Wideband Delphi technique attempts to gather the opinions of a group of experts with the aim of producing an accurate unbiased estimate, as mentioned earlier that having expert judgments with the project manager or anyone involved with in the project could or might result in bias for they might not see the abnormalities or severe risks in the project. Delphi technique is a structured technique of expert judgment and is essentially a form based technique involving a multi step procedure and these are: The experts are issued the specification and estimation form by the co-coordinator, a group meeting is held to discuss the product and estimation issues, experts produce an independent estimate, estimates are returned indicating the median estimate and the expert’s personal estimate, another group meeting is held to discuss results, experts prepare a revised independent estimate, steps 3-6 are repeated until a consensus is reached by the panel of experts.
http://www.ecfc.u-net.com/cost/expert.htm
http://project-management-knowledge.com/definitions/e/expert-judgment/
http://www.ecfc.u-net.com/cost/delph.htm
PMBOK of Knowledge
It was been discussed before that in order to organize a project, the project team is required to split or break the main project to several phases. These phases are composed of unique processes, and it is constructed with prerequisites. Some or most of these phases will encounter a technique called the Expert Judgment. To handle some risks, generate ideas and decision makings on the project, expert judgments are being conducted to guide the project team.
Expert judgment is mostly used in developing project charter, direct and manages project execution, perform integrated change control, define scope, estimate activity resources, estimating costs, identifying stakeholders, perform qualitative risk analysis, plan risk responses, conducting procurements and etc.
Defining what expert judgment is about: Expert judgment is a common technique used in estimation methods. Most judgments are based on expertise being acquired from specific areas and knowledge, which concludes that this method merely relies on factors such as gained experience from past projects. Which reminds me of something, having students consulting to a mentor for an approval or changes is also a practice of this expert judgment! LOL! Expert judgment is often used to assess the inputs needed to develop the project charter. Through this, gaining an edge using historical data is no more an issue. Inaccurate estimation definitely leads to failure, that’s why accurate data are important to set a mark for those estimations.
Through observations, I had managed to come up with a disadvantage regarding to the matter of having this expert judgment. Yes it is true that through this, the project team could have the advantage of securing the outcome of their project, hence giving them the assurance for a better quality. But using this technique or approach, the project team would spend a large time especially when taking the path of having the interviews and consults. Thus, the project team should be well prepared for consequence of using it or simply its drawbacks.
Any individual who has the knowledge and experience relating to the project could be considered as an expert. It could be a member of the team, an individual with same project in the past, and the project manager. But to avoid having biases, it is more appropriate to have an expert who’s outside the project, an individual or a group who’s not related to the project itself. Through this, the team could have an assurance of having the judgments straight, clear and real.
Expert judgment is a technique right? Where in this expert judgment is an approach to secure the quality of the ongoing project. Tools are being introduced to support this approach or rather the technique. Some tools that could be employed in this technique are the following:
Interviews – Interviews are common to us, this is a tool we had been using specially when we are in doubt or we do not have knowledge on something, it can go to a one-to-one or a many-to-one basis (which is compose of the expert and the apprentice or the project team). Interviews are conducted by asking a series of related questions to an expert or an individual whose knowledgeable that will increase your knowledge of the project or a particular project activity.
Brainstorming – Brainstorming is basically about sharing related ideas, knowledge and solution as an approach for a specific problem. This works by getting a group to focus on a problem and then coming up with as many ideas as possible to determine an absolute solution. The goal of brainstorming is to achieve a broad list of project risks and solutions to terminate further damages to the project.
Consulting – Another tool of expert judgment, in which the project team will come for an expert to have a consultation regarding to the risk and progress of their project. An effective approach, for it could give the project team the path that they must take and a consultant that will test and neglect some options.
Historical Data – Historical data uses the knowledge gained on a similar past project activity to obtain duration estimates for each activity associated with a current project. With the proven data, the team could compare and come up with a better approach or implementation for the project.
Using these tools and techniques, the project team could expand their knowledge about the projects’ risks control and on how to deal with the several options and additions for the developments and progress of their project.
Below are some techniques that still comprise the expert judgment (innovations made to cover the weaknesses of the said technique.):
Another technique that can be applied to handle risks and conclude ideas and solution is the analogous estimating. Analogous estimating is one form of expert judgment and it also known as Top-down Estimating. This approach or technique is mostly reliable when the previous activities are similar in fact and not just in appearance, and the project team members preparing the estimates have the needed expertise. This estimation technique will be applied to determine the duration when the detailed information about the project is not available, usually during the early stages of the project.
Another technique for judgment is the Delphi approach or Wideband Delphi technique attempts to gather the opinions of a group of experts with the aim of producing an accurate unbiased estimate, as mentioned earlier that having expert judgments with the project manager or anyone involved with in the project could or might result in bias for they might not see the abnormalities or severe risks in the project. Delphi technique is a structured technique of expert judgment and is essentially a form based technique involving a multi step procedure and these are: The experts are issued the specification and estimation form by the co-coordinator, a group meeting is held to discuss the product and estimation issues, experts produce an independent estimate, estimates are returned indicating the median estimate and the expert’s personal estimate, another group meeting is held to discuss results, experts prepare a revised independent estimate, steps 3-6 are repeated until a consensus is reached by the panel of experts.
http://www.ecfc.u-net.com/cost/expert.htm
http://project-management-knowledge.com/definitions/e/expert-judgment/
http://www.ecfc.u-net.com/cost/delph.htm
PMBOK of Knowledge
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